Will electric vehicles crush the grid?

A common question is whether electric vehicles (EVs) will bring down the electric grid. This is fair to ask. Will we be able to generate enough power, and move it around to power the EVs, and everything we power today?

This is a “point in time” scenario, that is important to think about clearly. The electric grid from the past, or even today’s electrical grid might struggle with the future's demand for electricity. This is especially so if suddenly there were huge numbers of electric vehicles on top of everything else. But that’s where our intuition gets tripped up. This scenario isn’t valid. Instead, future demand for electricity, will be met by the future grid.

Image source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:ThreePhaseAC

Hopefully this logic makes intuitive sense. Here’s an analogy that hopefully helps. The telecommunications network from the 1980’s, or even mid-1990’s wouldn't be able to cope with the demands from today's streaming video and other uses. But today's telecom systems and internet handle it just fine.

This same concept can be seen with roads, utilities, shipping, airlines, etc. As demand grows over time, capacity grows too. As an aside, there’s a danger to planning for endless growth. We’ll explore that in a future post.

It is worth noting that the cost of solar equipment (panels, charge controllers, inverters, and batteries) has dropped by 90% the last 10 years. That drop is accelerating... the lithium iron phosphate batteries I bought for my home 2 years ago have dropped by more than 50%. This makes sense as economy of scale producing solar gear and competition increases.

This matters because what used to be very expensive - to put solar panels on your roof, and generate your own power, is now significantly cheaper, and continues to drop fast. The point of sharing this is that it's already practical to generate all the power you need, today. It is only going to get cheaper and easier. And the cost for that power is on-a-par as what you’ll pay for power from the grid.

In the summer, most people will have the enviable problem of generating more power than they need. This enables pushing power to others who need it. In the wintertime, it's a bit more challenging since the sun isn't up for nearly as long per day. But, there are options, even without burning fossil fuels - the easiest is to just add more solar panels.

There are other sources of power not based on burning stuff. Wind still blows. And nuclear (fission) is still a clean source of much power.

We can go deeper though, pun not intentional. Once you go below the frost line, the ground is the same temperature all year round. The ground is a massive thermal mass. And, if you're in an area where it makes sense, drilling further down taps a vast source of heat. Heat can warm things, and it can also drive steam turbines to generate electricity.

A significant portion of power consumption is heating and cooling spaces. Heat pumps, and thermal batteries based on sand (to store heat) are simple and effective ways to change the game. Air source heat pumps are already far more efficient than gas furnaces. Ground source heat pumps are far more efficient still. Both can be used to heat or cool spaces without burning fossil fuels.

Batteries, and long distance DC power transmission (way more efficient than AC) change the game for power demand. They make storing power cheap and easy, and moving power from people who have it to those who need it easy too, for example, sending excess power from where the sun is shining to an area where it is not.

If you look at the big picture, even without miraculous new technology, it's clear the grid is going to be just fine with EVs.